The recent terrorist attack in Uri on India's army camp near the Line of Control - the disputed border with Pakistan - has dealt another jolt to India-Pakistan relations. India is lamenting the loss of its 17 martyred soldiers and 30 seriously injured army personnel who were engaged in a pre-dawn three-hour gunbattle with the terrorists. The attack has been tagged as the "worst terror attack on the Indian army in 17 years". While all four terrorists involved in the attack were eventually killed by Indian army personnel, India is making it very clear that it sees Pakistan's active role in destabilising the region. Lt General Singh of the Indian army has confirmed that the Uri terrorists were heavily armed and had "items with Pakistani markings". Pakistan, on the other hand, has denied any allegations of their involvement and sought concrete evidence to prove the accusations. This terrorist attack is yet another unfortunate episode in the series of extremist activities in the valley this year. In the last three months, more than 80 people have been killed and around 10,000 civilians and security personnel have been injured in clashes across Kashmir.
Prime Minister Modi in his official statement has strongly condemned the attack and has been actively voicing concerns about Pakistan's attempts to destabilise India through state-sponsored terrorism at all international forums. In fact, at the recent G-20 summit, Modi said “Indeed one single nation in South Asia is spreading these agents of terror in countries of our region...Those who sponsor and support terrorism must be isolated and sanctioned, not rewarded... ”. Modi’s intent is to single out Pakistan as the troubled child of Asia and build consensus among the international community for imposing sanctions against the country for perpetrating and promoting state-sponsored terrorism.
The Perennial Kashmir Issue
The Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir has been at the heart of South Asia's longest war between Pakistan and India. What began as a dispute over the annexation of Kashmir, has now evolved into a lifelong sibling rivalry based on the foundations of vote bank politics, mutual distrust, and religious animosity. Pakistan's alleged failure to act against terrorist outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its insistence on fueling the freedom movement in Kashmir, is debilitating the already fractured India-Pakistan relationship. Quite recently, the leadership of Pakistan, including its Prime Minister praised Burhan Wani, a terrorist Commander of the banned terrorist organisation Hizbul Mujahideen, as "martyr". The Pakistani rhetoric to support the freedom or "Azaadi" of the Kashmiris from India has only destabilised the region further, leading to a deadlock between the Mehbooba Mufti, Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir and the separatist 'Hurriyat' leaders such as Syed Ali Shah Geelani. The Chief Minister said in a recent statement after the Uri attack that the incursion was aimed at creating a "war-like situation" in the region. Six decades of futile Pakistani efforts, including three wars, have lent nothing but chaos to the region.
India’s Strategic Policy Shift
India - the land of Mahatma Gandhi - has always believed in the principles of solving disputes through non-violence and international diplomacy. However, Prime Minister Modi received criticism for his soft diplomacy with Pakistan after Pakistan failed to expedite the trial for 26/11 Mumbai terror attack despite several requests. Subsequently, the 2016 Pathankot terror attacks completely derailed the dialogue between the two countries. Modi's recent tweet on Uri, his assertions at the G-20 and Asean summit, and his explicit support to the independence movement of the Baluchistan, in his all-important Independence Day on August 15, all signal a huge strategic shift in India’s approach in dealing with Pakistan.
India has seldom intervened in the domestic politics of any country. However, what can be seen as a counter-flank attack to Pakistan's constant meddling in India's Kashmir affairs is Prime Minister Modi's open support to the Balochistan freedom movement. Earlier this month, for the very first time, India even flagged the Baloch cause at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva, highlighting Pakistan army's gross human rights violations in the region.
India appears to be losing patience and trust in the process of reconciliation with its neighbor and is trying out other means to stop Pakistan from interfering in the Kashmir issue. The “Doval Doctrine” might be a good insight into what India's policy pivot might be. According to Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, “if India exercises power, then Pakistan and the Kashmiris will fall in line. Islamabad must be made to understand that it cannot take on the Indian establishment. Islamabad’s mindset is unlikely to change unless India gives a decisive blow to Pakistan. This would also make the separatists change their minds and renounce links with Pakistan”. India seems keen on following the doctrine since its non-violent means have seldom given way to peace. Modi government is cracking down on the separatist hardliners in Kashmir with a stern resolve, suppressing any uprising in Kashmir by imposing curfews and using pellet guns. This strategy will lead to extreme circumstances and can swing in either direction but this is a gamble that the Narendra Modi government is willing to make.
India appears to be losing patience and trust in the process of reconciliation with its neighbor and is trying out other means to stop Pakistan from interfering in the Kashmir issue. The “Doval Doctrine” might be a good insight into what India's policy pivot might be. According to Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, “if India exercises power, then Pakistan and the Kashmiris will fall in line. Islamabad must be made to understand that it cannot take on the Indian establishment. Islamabad’s mindset is unlikely to change unless India gives a decisive blow to Pakistan. This would also make the separatists change their minds and renounce links with Pakistan”. India seems keen on following the doctrine since its non-violent means have seldom given way to peace. Modi government is cracking down on the separatist hardliners in Kashmir with a stern resolve, suppressing any uprising in Kashmir by imposing curfews and using pellet guns. This strategy will lead to extreme circumstances and can swing in either direction but this is a gamble that the Narendra Modi government is willing to make.
What to Expect in the Near Future?
As a result of the Uri attack and the rising instability in the Kashmir region, one can expect an escalation of the skirmish between the two nuclear powers near the Line of Control and a full-blown proxy war within the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. This time, the Indian political diaspora and the public at large is speaking in unison, demanding that India takes strict action to punish perpetrators of terror in the valley. It is, therefore, difficult to imagine India adopting a soft stance with Pakistan in the immediate future given the diplomatic deadlock between Prime Minister Nawaz Shareef and Prime Minister Modi. One can expect a war of words between the two countries at the upcoming UN General Assembly and a diplomatic boycott at the SAARC summit. While the US and China can act as mediators to the rival nations, the issue of Kashmir shall continue to be contentious until the separatists come onboard the truce discussions. It is important to understand that a destabilised Kashmir will be a hotbed of terrorist activity in Asia which will benefit no country in the long run and until the issue is resolved, the chances of a heightened conflict between the two nuclear neighbors will continue to persist.
